The correlation between a county’s % Hispanic inhabitants and its swing towards Trump was 0.41. Even excluding Miami-Dade County and all of Texas, the correlation remains to be 0.30. The Bronx, Los Angeles, Osceola County close to Orlando, and Hudson and Passaic Counties in Northern New Jersey are all at the very least 40 % Hispanic and swung towards Mr. Trump by at the very least 5 proportion factors.
City vs. suburban
Biden’s good points have been largest in suburban areas, as was instantly obvious after the election. However as a result of many city counties have been among the many slowest to report their votes, the image in these counties has turn into clear solely lately.
President Trump did higher in 2020 than 2016 not solely in Miami-Dade, Los Angeles and the Bronx, but in addition in Brooklyn, Queens, Manhattan, and the counties encompassing the cities of Chicago, Philadelphia, San Jose and San Francisco.
Although city counties stay overwhelmingly Democratic, Mr. Trump’s margin improved by 1.1 proportion factors in these counties — an excellent larger pickup than Trump achieved in non-metropolitan counties, that are largely rural. Thus, the urban-suburban divide narrowed in 2020 — and the urban-rural divide did as effectively.
Some regional and native patterns supply different potential explanations for 2020 swings.
Dwelling-state loyalties. Arkansas is considered one of solely a half-dozen states that swung towards Mr. Trump. It’s potential that Mrs. Clinton benefited in 2016 from some residual good feeling within the state primarily based on her decade-long time period as first girl of Arkansas — one thing that Mr. Biden couldn’t compensate for. (The Fort Smith, Ark., space was among the many high 25 metro areas that swung towards Mr. Trump.)
However, Mr. Biden appeared to obtain a home-state bonus in Delaware, which had the third-biggest swing towards Mr. Trump of any state.
New Fort County, with Wilmington as its county seat, moved virtually eight factors towards Mr. Biden. Why did the Salisbury, Md., metro space have such an enormous swing towards Mr. Trump? One potential motive is that somewhat greater than half of the inhabitants of the metro space is throughout the state border, in Sussex County in Delaware.